You can just say things

Moonbags does!

Jan 08, 2026

I’ve mostly been focusing on shitposting recently, but once and a while some good bait comes up and I can’t help but take a nibble. I have received some complaints about not writing any Substacks for a while, hope you enjoy this one.

Recently, Moonbags has been delivering some bangers that got my jimmies all rustled up. So let’s take a deeper look at things.

Context

Yesterday, he posted a lot of yapping.

It’s way, way longer than this, you can read it here. This is what you might call an “unforced error”. No one made him post this bullshit, and it really served no purpose.

Anyway, I’ve long been aware of him dumping $juicy, in fact I’ve posted myself about him dumping it via Salvor loans. So one small thing in here jumped out at me.

It’s actually quite common for founders of tokens who care to lose money on their coins because they use funds “supporting the price”. So I figured I would take a little look to see if that was the case here.

And I did find buys! Wallets with actually more buys (in USD) than sells. I’m a fair guy, so I made sure to highlight them here.

Unfortunately, I found A LOT of wallets with sells. X limits you to 4 screenshots per post so I cut it off there, but I posted more in Discord.

This post got a lot of commentary! I scrolled through looking for some bangers so you don’t have to.

This one is curious, I’m not that familiar with the tokenomics, we’ll come back to that

Someone came with receipts, spicy!

OTC, you say?

Oof.

The empire rebuts

So later that day he followed up with another post, yapping about the negative response to his earlier yapping.

Some really quality shit in here, but let’s focus on the relevant part for this post.

Had to double check, but it looked like I was the only person who pointed to specific wallets in the last post. You know, other than that guy who posted screenshots where Moonbags tried to get him to put up MORE collateral for him to dump into.

I’m not the only one who saw this and thought it might be about me.

We’ve also got this guy, a notorious rugger strongly in support of Moonbags.

Whew, good thing I have a ton of free time to research this and prove my case!

ChANALisis

I tried to put an anal joke in there but I don’t think it worked. Moving on.

You might wonder how someone can be sure that an account is owned by someone else. Well despite what you might think from reading Zach’s posts, it’s actually quite difficult and rarely cut and dry. I’ve made mistakes before, for sure! I’ve become quite conservative in attributing ownership, but even still I occasionally make mistakes.

When you’ve got 50 wallets tagged for a person, it’s (probably) likely that some of them are wrong. You do the best you can, you be conservative with your claims.

Let’s take a look at some of the methods that you can use to estimate ownership.

Sending funds from A to B

There are plenty of reasons to send funds! As Moonbags notes, sending funds to someone doesn’t imply ownership of the receiving account. This is very weak evidence. It’s stronger evidence if it’s a substantial amount of money but still.

You might think I’m smitty, but he’s actually much better looking than me.

Repeatedly sending funds from A to B to A to B

OK, well this is better evidence that two accounts share ownership. Still not perfect though. Plenty of reasons to send money back and forth between friends.

Sweeping funds

OK this is where it starts to get easier. It’s very common for people to use a small amount of “hot” wallets at a time, and people sweep funds out of older addresses and remove them from their wallet software to keep things from cluttering up.

Just make sure you don’t catch people doing presales, or paying for services, or some such! This kind of pattern where it is smallish, random amounts of money, all sent in a short timeframe, is pretty good evidence.

A web of entwined accounts, A, B, C, D

This is another good one. Most people have TERRIBLE wallet hygiene. Wallets don’t have specific purposes, they interact with each other randomly over a long period of time.

Once you start putting people into an entity and you click on them and see the transfers between accounts in that entity. Oof.

Well known tags and payments

Obviously some tags are straightforward. It doesn’t take a genius to know who owns this.

The place this wallet sweeps funds to? Yeah probably also the same guy. Everyone’s got Arena wallets with verified X identities now, makes my life so much simpler.

This is an easy one obviously, Juicy has contracts and this is the account that deployed them.

Here’s a payment for the work on AIVAX, I was told at the time that it was $30K, lines up perfectly.

Corroborating evidence

Here we’ve got these accounts that are receiving funds directly from the Juicy Gnosis Safe. This isn’t perfect evidence of ownership but it does indicate intent, since the TX had to be signed by someone important!

Here’s a Gnosis Safe for $RED, the flagship launch on FizSocial (a Moonbags product) which I am told Moonbags was behind (went to zero).

Could be someone else, could be. Who can say?

I’m not sure what this is for, some kind of MPC wallet? I didn’t look that close. But if you look at the top counterparties, wow that’s some corroboration.

Shared CEX deposit addresses

This is a good way to find candidate wallets, but it’s once again just corroboration. I blanked out a third party who sent him some funds below!

But generally speaking, finding reused CEX addresses is a great way to ID wallets. It’s less common (but not unknown) for people to send directly to other people’s CEX wallets.

Common behaviors

This is just more corroborating-level evidence in general, and the specific type of ‘common behavior’ could vary from person to person. Maybe they only use MetaMask swap like a retard. Maybe they only use Pharoah. Maybe they exclusively trade some obscure NFT. It will vary from investigation to investigation.

But I wanted to call it out specifically because it’s funny and will come up again later. There’s a really funny thing you can see over, and over, and over, and over across these wallets.

Personally, I’ve never felt the urge to loan out tokens on Salvor. I’m sure people do. I’m a bit less sure about how many people are loaning out Juicy.

Harder evidence

And finally we’ve got stuff like this

Not really up for debate, given that he admitted to it on X, right?

Another fun thing is when you have a billion other people in the eco tagged and you see them in counterparties and you reach out to them for confirmation.

People love doing pre and post sales!

And then there are obvious payments for undisclosed shilling, where the awkward response is an admission of guilt.

Yeah IDK bro people are always sending me thousands of dollars of coins and I just sell them without knowing why.

I got tired of scrolling back on this query, honestly. Isn’t undisclosed paid shilling a crime in the US?

The facts

Wow, that was quite a digression! I hope you learned something today.

Let’s move on to the facts. I’ll ignore the wallets that I claimed bought more Juicy than they sold (why would he complain about that?) and just focus on the dumpers.

Specifically, the 4 dumpers that I posted; I want to be clear that there are A LOT of his wallets that dumped Juicy. I just don’t care to do that much work and total it up.

Here are the wallets, my tags for them as I was investigating, and the evidence. I’m not going to bother with the charts or the dumps again to save space. I ordered them to make the story clearer.

Dumper 4 - “Big JUICY seller, AIVAX Pay”

Well this one is an easy ID, between the AIVAX pay and 3rd party confirmation.

Also I want to note up front that Dumper 4 interacts with Dumper 1, 2, and 3.

Dumper 3 - “MASSIVE sells, RED Gnosis Signer”

Evidence:

RED Gnosis signer
EIGHT PAGES of interactions with other wallets I have tagged as Moonbags
Initially funded by Dumper 1
Interacts with Dumper 1, 2, and 4
Gets funds from Juicy Gnosis
Interacts with Moonbags-deployed vault contract
Sends Juicy to Hazy (employee)
Gets funds from the AIVAX wallet

Dumper 1 - “Lots of sells, 2 small buys”

Evidence:

Funded Dumper 3
FOURTEEN pages of interactions with Moonbags wallets
Interacts with Dumper 2, 3, 4
Come on man

Dumper 2 - “All sells, mid sized”

Evidence:

Actually why the fuck am I still doing this? Ahahahaha. Let me just post a screenshot.

The TYPES of dumping

So you know, you can find lots of evidence of Moonbags literally dumping right into the LP. But what about the other kinds of dumps?

Like the OTC sales? If you recall from earlier, he was openly posting about OTC’ing Juicy to people. You can call it what you want but that’s selling (eventually).

And how about the Salvor loan dumping? I’ve mentioned this several times now.

Soooo, after I did all this research to confirm things, I had Claude write this for me! The results will SHOCK you!

Somehow almost ALL of the defaulters were already tagged as Moonbags, color me surprised. I went to check those last two untagged ones, and yup, also Moonbags.

Claude is so helpful, I love him.

So to be clear:

He sold tokens into the LP
He sold tokens OTC
He sold tokens by defaulting on SIXTEEN FUCKING PERCENT OF THE FLOAT into Salvor loans

We shall now begin Ethics

I’m not a lawyer! But as a layperson, I think that if your tokenomics say you have X% of your tokens unlocked, and then you sell those X% into the market, you’re probably in the clear.

Ethically? IDK, this is all gambling, sometimes you fuck and sometimes you get fucked.

I even already posted about how I personally think defaulting on the loans is kosher.

I’m a little confused though; someone mentioned 15% of Juicy was the dev allocation. How did he manage to default on 16.5%? That’s not even including the OTC and the direct sales.

Curious.

I attempted to find the tokenomics for Juicy.

Wow really weird how all their medium articles are gone. Thank god for the wayback machine!

Well, I guess he’s in the clear, everyone knows there’s no difference between team and treasury.

There’s no way he dumped more than 26% right?

Right?

I enjoy being rubbed, but not in the wrong way

Few things piss me off, honestly.

First, the martyr complex. Cry me a river.

You’re running a business. You can gamble on it being successful if you want. If you win, you get a huge payoff. If you lose, you don’t.

You can sell tokens to pay bills. That’s cool. But lying and pretending that you didn’t, less cool.

Second, the weasel words.

“By the treasury wallet”. I didn’t even verify that was all it sold, I’ll just say sure, that’s all it sold and not look any deeper. But what about the OTHER WALLETS.

HOW MUCH DID THE OTHER WALLETS SELL (a lot)?

HOW MUCH DID YOU OTC (other people sold)?